Say someone wanted to solo mine with a very cheap setup with hopes to find a block themselves.

What would the odds of finding a block be over a certain amount of time? I’m just trying to compare it to winning the lottery with a similar sized jackpot. I want to compare the odds for fun. If any probability / math experts want to chime in that would be great.

You can go to any BTG mining calculator to find your earnings rate with your setup. Make sure the calculator you use has been updated for the new algo (Equihash-BTG, as of July 3rd) - one example is the calculator at WhatToMine.

I fired up with the default settings in the calculator right now, but flipped it to a hash rate of 20 h/s - one decent graphics cards in a computer. Here’s what it shows:

You’d generate about 0.019975 BTG per day.

Finding an actual block would mean earning 12.5 BTG… so how long to find a block?

12.5 BTG per block / .019975 BTG per day= 626 days per block

So, on average, you’d hit one block every 626 days (assuming difficulty stays the same forever.)

Of course, you could hit tomorrow, or you might mine for five years and never hit.